Same thing goes in the NFL, where even if you’re more David than Goliath, it’s always nice to sleep in your own bed and have 50,000 boisterous hometown fans in your corner come Sunday. Sometimes that extra boost gives you a puncher’s chance – or so the story goes.

Home-field advantage is one of the game’s intangibles that oddsmakers try to put a tangible value on every week. Obviously it’s far from an exact science and will vary a bit depending on the stadium, but the general rule of thumb makes home-field worth about a field goal on the posted pointspread.

And I’ve been thumbing my nose at the idea that home underdogs are generally more attractive than visiting pups strictly because of the home-field factor for a while now.

But I needed backup so I put the statistical wizards of the office on Mythbusters duty and found out home underdogs of 10 points or fewer have covered 50.6 percent of the time while road dogs of 10 or fewer points have covered at 49.4 percent clip since the 1985 season.

So we’re splitting hairs here over literally thousands of games. Makes you wonder where this preconceived notion about the inherit value of home underdogs comes from.

“A lot of it still stems from a historical cycle more than a decade ago when home underdogs had a particularly good run,” longtime professional handicapper David Malinsky says.

He doesn’t put nearly as much emphasis on home-field advantage as he used to either.

“With modern travel being the way that it is even longer flights are not all that difficult for teams any more,” Malinsky says. “And the funny thing is that given the nature of the modern athlete, many times playing in front of a hostile crowd can seem to fire players up even more than when the crowd is behind them.”

Let’s hope that’s the case this week; the only underdogs I like are of the visiting variety. Coincidence? Never.

Miami at Buffalo – Dolphins +7

A buddy of mine (pathetic, misguided Bills fan) was lucky enough to take in the last meeting between these two teams in Miami from a great seat right on the 50-yard line. Since then he hasn’t gone more than four days without replaying a late Ted Ginn Jr. kickoff return that went the other way with a flag on the field.

If you were at the game and saw a single dorky Canadian yelling “It’s coming back! It’s coming back!” in a sea of Dolphins jubilation, you have an idea about how annoying this can be.

Another defensive snoozefest this time around, minus the obnoxious Canuck. Take the points.

St. Louis at Cincinnati – Rams +6 ½

It may not be saying much, but St. Louis is the best 3-9 team in the league. What does say something, however, is that the Rams would have won and covered their last four games if it weren’t for a fumbled snap on the goal line two weeks ago against Seattle. Marc Bulger should be ready to go this week and he can go shot-for-shot with Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer with a healthy group of receivers.

It’s been a terrible year for the Rams but this team has some guts, something that can’t be said about the skittish Bengals.

Oakland at Green Bay – Raiders +10 ½

Brett Favre should start, but his throwing elbow took a nasty whack last week so Green Bay will be careful with him and backup Aaron Rogers is out with a pulled hamstring. That means Craig Nall will make his sixth career appearance if the old gunslinger takes a seat.

That could be trouble against an Oakland team that’s all fired up over the JaMarcus Russell era. The rookie looked great taking his first real NFL snaps last week and while he probably won’t start, don’t be surprised if he gets in the game at some point.

As much as I like the Packers, this looks like a tough spot for them. Plus, it looks like there’s a chance of snow at Lambeau. 

Last week’s record: 2-1
Season record to date: 20-18-1