Betting on the NFL
can be a tricky business in the final few weeks of the season. Some of
the bigger teams have already clinched and start to look ahead to the
postseason. Many of the lesser teams are out of contention and
essentially give up.We’ve looked back on the last four years to find the teams that tend to excel in the latter part of the season.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
In
the past four seasons, the Steelers have finished stronger than any
other team in the league. They have gone 3-1 ATS in the final four
games of each of the last four seasons.
Always being in playoff contention is one thing helping Pittsburgh stay motivated.
Last
season, they won and covered against Cleveland, Carolina and Cincinnati
in a late playoff push, but were ultimately unsuccessful. In the 2005
season, they finished with four straight wins and went all the way to
the Super Bowl.
This season, the Steelers are once again
leaving it late to clinch a playoff place. That’s good news for
backers. Pittsburgh will play hard in its final game against Baltimore,
and will be a tough proposition for any team if they do make the
playoffs.
2. Miami Dolphins
The
Dolphins like to spoil the party for other teams. While they haven’t
made the playoffs since 2001, they have a strong recent history of
beating playoff-bound teams at the end of the season.
The biggest victim of Miami’s late-season success is New England. The Patriots have lost to the Dolphins near the end of the regular season for three consecutive years, including a 21-0 loss at Dolphins Stadium last December.
Miami’s
next game is, of course, against the undefeated Pats. At 1-13 this
season even the most optimistic fan wouldn’t expect the Dolphins to win
against the Patriots. But based on recent seasons, they could cover the
22-point spread.
Miami then closes out the season against Cincinnati.
3. Arizona Cardinals
The
Cardinals are ranked 13th in the league with a moderate 8-6 ATS mark.
But it’s Arizona’s uncanny knack for perennially padding backers’
wallets late in the season that lands them among the best finishing
teams in the NFL.
Arizona was the underdog in each of its final
four tilts last season and was 3-1 ATS in that stretch. In fact, the
Cardinals are a notable 11-5 ATS in their final four games in each of
the last four seasons before this one.
Oddsmakers have a difficult task of setting the lines for the inconsistent Cardinals.
Veteran quarterback Warner leads the Cardinals against his former club, the St. Louis Rams, on Dec. 30. Arizona covered the spread as a 3 ½-point favorite versus the Rams on Oct. 30.
4. New England Patriots
There
was much debate this season about how New England runs up the score on
opponents, embarrassing them at times. The pattern extends to how the
team plays out its season. The Pats rarely ease up toward the end of
the year no matter how early they clinch a playoff spot.
They have closed out each of the last three seasons by winning and covering in three of their last four games.
This year New England has the added incentive of going for the “perfect” season. Its final two games are against Miami and the Giants, and neither of those two teams should expect any kind of let-up from the Pats.
5. New York Jets
The
media constantly hounds the struggling Jets. Still, New York seems to
always give backers hope at the end of each season that the next
campaign will be better.
The follow-up success never comes, but
that doesn’t mean bettors should dismiss how New York winds up seasons.
They should embrace the Jets’ perennial ATS success (at least over the
last four seasons) in December.
Quarterback’s Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens
have led New York to a notable 7-2 ATS mark in its final four contests
in each of the last two seasons. The Jets also covered the spread last
Sunday against the Patriots.
New York is an impressive 10-6 ATS
in its final four tilts over the last four years. The Jets conclude
their season next Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs.