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NFL wild card mismatches: Where to find the edge
NFL wild card mismatches: Where to find the edge
By Covers.com Contributor | Published  01/1/2008 | NFL
Covers.com Contributor
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Todd Collins -- a chance to shine...
Todd Collins - Sports Gambling

Looking for a betting edge in this weekend’s NFL playoff games? We’ve picked out two key mismatches in each game that could have a major affect on the outcome.

Washington at Seattle (-3 1/2, 40)

Seahawks defensive end Patrick Kerney vs. Redskins quarterback Todd Collins

A season-ending injury to Redskins starting quarterback Jason Campbell gave veteran Todd Collins a chance to close out the season. The new starter has led Washington to four straight wins and the playoffs but he may well meet his match against Seattle – and defensive end Patrick Kerney in particular.

Kerney finished second overall with 14.5 sacks this season, and managed three sacks a game three different times. The 6-foot-5, 273-pound monster has also managed 49 tackles, five forced fumbles and an interception.

Collins has done an excellent job as Campbell’s replacement, but a postseason game against Seattle will easily be his most competitive yet. He has been sacked eight times in four games. Expect that number to increase when Kerney gets going. 

Redskins running back Clinton Portis vs. Seahawks’ rush defense

Washington running back Clinton Portis closed out the season in storming fashion and that should carry over into the playoffs. Seattle, meanwhile, has struggled to defend against the run in big games this season.

Portis ran for a combined 306 yards and four touchdowns in his last three games – all of which where Washington wins. He finished sixth in the league with 1,262 yards, and had a team-leading 11 TDs.

Seattle’s rush defense ranks 12th in the league in yards per game (102.8) but has been found wanting against top opposition. It surrendered 128 yards and a touchdown to Cardinals RB Edgerrin James in a Sept. 16 loss, and 102 yards to Willie Parker in an October defeat against Pittsburgh.

On current form, Portis is capable of putting up similar totals.

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (+1, 38 1/2)

Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger vs. Jaguars pass defense

Ben Roethlisberger has picked apart opposition defenses at will in certain games this season. If he produces his best this week, he will cause serious problems for a mediocre Jags’ pass defense.

Roethlisberger had the second-best QB rating in the NFL behind Tom Brady (104.1) and was third in passing TDs (32). In his previous outing against Jacksonville this season, the fourth-year pro threw for 146 yards and three touchdowns in a Dec. 16 loss.

Jacksonville’s pass defense is giving up 213.8 yards per game to rank 15th in the league. It has allowed seven different opposing quarterbacks to throw for more than 250 yards, including a 445-yard performance by Drew Brees in a Nov. 4 loss to New Orleans.

Jaguars running back Fred Taylor vs. Steelers’ rush defense

The Steelers have one of the meanest defenses in the NFL, but Jags running back Fred Taylor has already got the better of it once this season. He will be confident of a repeat performance in Saturday’s playoff clash.

Taylor ran for 147 yards and a touchdown in Jacksonville’s 29-22 win over Pittsburgh on Dec. 16. That was part of a five-game streak of 100-yard games for Taylor. Overall this season, the fifth-year pro ran for 1,260 yards and five TDs.

The Steelers boast the league’s third-best rush defense (89.9 yards per game), but the ‘D’ did not finish the season strong. It allowed an average of 104 yards per game in its final four contests, three of them losses.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 39 ½)

Buccaneers’ turnovers gained vs. Giants’ turnovers lost

Tampa Bay boasts one of the league’s best defenses, allowing just 278.8 yards and 16.9 points per game. But one of the team’s greatest strengths is its ability to take the pressure off by forcing opponents to turn over the ball.

The Bucs ranked third in the league with 35 takeaways this season – 16 interceptions and 19 recovered fumbles. Safety Jermaine Philips and defensive end Greg White are largely responsible for that success. Philips finished the season with four INTs and three forced fumbles, while White had a team-high seven forced fumbles and 8.5 sacks.

Protecting the ball has not been the Giants’ greatest strength this year. They have turned over the ball on 34 occasions – 20 intercepted passes and 14 fumbles that were recovered by opponents.

Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora vs. Buccaneers quarterback Jeff Garcia

The Giants had a league-leading 52 sacks this season, with defensive end Osi Umenyiora producing 14 of them. On Sunday, he gets the chance to add to that impressive total against veteran Bucs quarterback Jeff Garcia.

Umenyiora finished third in sacks overall, but led the category for most of the year. His numbers are somewhat skewed by an amazing six-sack performance against the Eagles on Sept. 30, but he still managed at least one sack in eight of New York’s 16 games.

At 37 years old, Garcia is not as mobile as he used to be, and could be a sore man following this encounter. He has been sacked 19 times in 13 games. It’s not just Umenyiora that Garcia has to worry about – three other Giants players have more than five sacks this season.

Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-9, 41)

Titans running back LenDale White vs. Chargers’ rush defense

These teams met on Dec. 9 and LenDale White caused San Diego’s defense problems. The Chargers won 23-17, but White ran for 113 yards and a touchdown.

The second-year pro ranks 12th overall with 1,108 yards and seven TDs this season. White has broken the century mark in five of his 16 games, including two of his last four. White also has 114 receiving yards.

The Chargers, meanwhile, are allowing 107.6 yards per game on the ground. They have allowed four different running backs to break the 100-yard mark against them this season, including Adrian Peterson’s record-breaking 296-yard game on Nov. 4.

White is unlikely to come close to that total, but should be able to repeat his performance of a few weeks ago.

Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers vs. Titans’ pass defense

The Chargers closed out the season with six straight wins thanks in large part to quarterback Philip Rivers. He averaged 183.3 yards per game over that time and had a combined 10 touchdown passes.

That includes the 23-17 win over Tennessee in early December in which Rivers threw for 228 yards and two TDs. The fourth-year pro has racked up 3,152 yards in 16 games this season, throwing for a total of 21 touchdowns.

The Titans’ pass defense ranks 10th in the league in yards per game (199.4), but has not finished the season well. In four of its final five games (omitting the final contest against a second-string Colts lineup), Tennessee’s pass defense allowed an average 232 passing yards per game and a combined six TDs through the air.



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