Looking for a betting edge in this weekend’s NFL playoff games?
We’ve picked out two key mismatches in each game that could have a
major affect on the outcome.Washington at Seattle (-3 1/2, 40)
Seahawks defensive end Patrick Kerney vs. Redskins quarterback Todd Collins
A season-ending injury to Redskins starting quarterback Jason Campbell
gave veteran Todd Collins a chance to close out the season. The new
starter has led Washington to four straight wins and the playoffs but
he may well meet his match against Seattle – and defensive end Patrick
Kerney in particular.
Kerney finished second overall with 14.5
sacks this season, and managed three sacks a game three different
times. The 6-foot-5, 273-pound monster has also managed 49 tackles,
five forced fumbles and an interception.
Collins has done an
excellent job as Campbell’s replacement, but a postseason game against
Seattle will easily be his most competitive yet. He has been sacked
eight times in four games. Expect that number to increase when Kerney
gets going.
Redskins running back Clinton Portis vs. Seahawks’ rush defense
Washington
running back Clinton Portis closed out the season in storming fashion
and that should carry over into the playoffs. Seattle, meanwhile, has
struggled to defend against the run in big games this season.
Portis
ran for a combined 306 yards and four touchdowns in his last three
games – all of which where Washington wins. He finished sixth in the
league with 1,262 yards, and had a team-leading 11 TDs.
Seattle’s
rush defense ranks 12th in the league in yards per game (102.8) but has
been found wanting against top opposition. It surrendered 128 yards and
a touchdown to Cardinals RB Edgerrin James in a Sept. 16 loss, and 102 yards to Willie Parker in an October defeat against Pittsburgh.
On current form, Portis is capable of putting up similar totals.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (+1, 38 1/2)
Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger vs. Jaguars pass defense
Ben
Roethlisberger has picked apart opposition defenses at will in certain
games this season. If he produces his best this week, he will cause
serious problems for a mediocre Jags’ pass defense.
Roethlisberger had the second-best QB rating in the NFL behind Tom Brady
(104.1) and was third in passing TDs (32). In his previous outing
against Jacksonville this season, the fourth-year pro threw for 146
yards and three touchdowns in a Dec. 16 loss.
Jacksonville’s
pass defense is giving up 213.8 yards per game to rank 15th in the
league. It has allowed seven different opposing quarterbacks to throw
for more than 250 yards, including a 445-yard performance by Drew Brees in a Nov. 4 loss to New Orleans.
Jaguars running back Fred Taylor vs. Steelers’ rush defense
The
Steelers have one of the meanest defenses in the NFL, but Jags running
back Fred Taylor has already got the better of it once this season. He
will be confident of a repeat performance in Saturday’s playoff clash.
Taylor
ran for 147 yards and a touchdown in Jacksonville’s 29-22 win over
Pittsburgh on Dec. 16. That was part of a five-game streak of 100-yard
games for Taylor. Overall this season, the fifth-year pro ran for 1,260
yards and five TDs.
The Steelers boast the league’s third-best
rush defense (89.9 yards per game), but the ‘D’ did not finish the
season strong. It allowed an average of 104 yards per game in its final
four contests, three of them losses.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 39 ½)
Buccaneers’ turnovers gained vs. Giants’ turnovers lost
Tampa Bay
boasts one of the league’s best defenses, allowing just 278.8 yards and
16.9 points per game. But one of the team’s greatest strengths is its
ability to take the pressure off by forcing opponents to turn over the
ball.
The Bucs ranked third in the league with 35 takeaways this
season – 16 interceptions and 19 recovered fumbles. Safety Jermaine
Philips and defensive end Greg White are largely responsible for that
success. Philips finished the season with four INTs and three forced
fumbles, while White had a team-high seven forced fumbles and 8.5
sacks.
Protecting the ball has not been the Giants’ greatest
strength this year. They have turned over the ball on 34 occasions – 20
intercepted passes and 14 fumbles that were recovered by opponents.
Giants defensive end Osi Umenyiora vs. Buccaneers quarterback Jeff Garcia
The
Giants had a league-leading 52 sacks this season, with defensive end
Osi Umenyiora producing 14 of them. On Sunday, he gets the chance to
add to that impressive total against veteran Bucs quarterback Jeff
Garcia.
Umenyiora finished third in sacks overall, but led the
category for most of the year. His numbers are somewhat skewed by an
amazing six-sack performance against the Eagles on Sept. 30, but he
still managed at least one sack in eight of New York’s 16 games.
At
37 years old, Garcia is not as mobile as he used to be, and could be a
sore man following this encounter. He has been sacked 19 times in 13
games. It’s not just Umenyiora that Garcia has to worry about – three
other Giants players have more than five sacks this season.
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-9, 41)
Titans running back LenDale White vs. Chargers’ rush defense
These
teams met on Dec. 9 and LenDale White caused San Diego’s defense
problems. The Chargers won 23-17, but White ran for 113 yards and a
touchdown.
The second-year pro ranks 12th overall with 1,108
yards and seven TDs this season. White has broken the century mark in
five of his 16 games, including two of his last four. White also has
114 receiving yards.
The Chargers, meanwhile, are allowing
107.6 yards per game on the ground. They have allowed four different
running backs to break the 100-yard mark against them this season,
including Adrian Peterson’s record-breaking 296-yard game on Nov. 4.
White is unlikely to come close to that total, but should be able to repeat his performance of a few weeks ago.
Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers vs. Titans’ pass defense
The
Chargers closed out the season with six straight wins thanks in large
part to quarterback Philip Rivers. He averaged 183.3 yards per game
over that time and had a combined 10 touchdown passes.
That
includes the 23-17 win over Tennessee in early December in which Rivers
threw for 228 yards and two TDs. The fourth-year pro has racked up
3,152 yards in 16 games this season, throwing for a total of 21
touchdowns.
The Titans’ pass defense ranks 10th in the league
in yards per game (199.4), but has not finished the season well. In
four of its final five games (omitting the final contest against a
second-string Colts lineup), Tennessee’s pass defense allowed an
average 232 passing yards per game and a combined six TDs through the
air.