With all the hype
about this year’s Super Bowl it’s going to be relatively easy to find
the obvious betting statistics, like against the spread and over/under
records between the Pats and the Giants.
To
give bettors a greater edge in their Super Bowl betting, we’ve gone
back through 20 years worth of statistics to bring you a few nuggets of
information that could help you make some money.
1. Big favorites have mixed results
The
Patriots are hefty 12-point favorites to beat the Giants, which is not
surprising for a team that is 18-0. But how have big favorites fared
against the spread in past Super Bowls?
Favorites of seven points or more have gone 7-6-1 against the spread in the Super Bowl since the 1986 season, while faves of 10 points or more have gone 4-3-1. Ironically, the biggest spread over that time came in the 2002 clash between St. Louis and New England. The Rams were 14-point favorites, but ended up losing 20-17 to the Pats.
In
their next two Super Bowl appearances, the Patriots were seven-point
favorites. But they failed to cover on both occasions, beating the
Panthers by three in 2004 and the Eagles by three in 2005. In fact, the
Pats have been to five Super Bowls in 21 years, but have covered just
once.
2. NFC wins battle of the East
Recent history is on the Giants’ side if you look back at Super Bowl matchups between teams from the AFC East and the NFC East.
In
the five contests between teams from those divisions in the past 20
years, the NFC East teams are 4-1 straight and 5-0 against the spread,
with three of those games going over the total. The Giants were
involved in one of those battles, beating the Buffalo Bills 20-19 in
1991.
But
the only AFC East team to hand an NFC East franchise a Super Bowl loss
over that time was the New England Patriots. They beat the Eagles 24-21
in 2005.
3. Giants home record sets a record
The
Giants set an unwanted record this season, becoming the only team in
history to make football’s showpiece game, despite having a losing home
record.
New York went 3-5 at home this season, losing to Green Bay, Dallas, Minnesota, Washington and New England at Giants Stadium. They lost to the Packers and Dallas by a combined 33 points in those home losses, but it’s worth noting that they defeated both teams on the road in the playoffs.
The home loss to New England
will also be a source of encouragement for the Giants. They were only
the third team this season to take a lead into the final quarter
against the Patriots (28-23), but ended up losing 38-35 because of Tom
Brady’s pinpoint passing under pressure.
4. Don’t overlook the total
There
have only been five Super Bowls in the last 20 years with a total of 50
or more, with two of them going over the total and the other three
going under. The Patriots were involved in one of those games – their
2004 win over Carolina went over the 53-point total.
Of
more relevance are the total trends in recent matchups between the Pats
and the Giants. Three straight meetings between these teams have gone
over, but the totals only ranged from 35 to 46 ½ over that period.
In fact, the 53 ½-point spread between the New England and New York
is the highest in well over 10 years and is likely the reaction of
oddsmakers to the offensive shootout these teams produced in their last
meeting.
5. Successful road teams in the Super Bowl
The
New York Giants have won 10 straight road games (a single season
record), including three straight in this season’s playoffs. Only five
wild-card teams since 1970 have reached the Super Bowl.
The
two most recent were the 1986 New England Patriots and the 2006
Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots went on to lose the ‘86 final to the
Chicago Bears – a 46-10 blowout loss. But the Steelers continued their
momentum, defeating Seattle 21-10 as four-point favorites.
Although the Super Bowl is technically at a neutral venue in Arizona, the Giants have been designated as the visiting team.