
Super Bowl Sunday is like Christmas morning for bettors.But it’s like D-Day for bookmakers.
With the volume of action coming in on the game, the hundreds of prop bets, parlays and over/under plays, a Las Vegas sportsbook is like the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in hours leading up to kickoff.
That’s
why they have to make sure all these lines are sharp. If not, someone
will take advantage and turn Super Bowl Sunday into Black Sunday (or
would that be Red Sunday?).
Anyway, with all the focus on the
biggest single betting event of the year, some people believe there’s a
window of betting opportunity open for anyone savvy enough to get
down on the few games on Sunday’s schedule that aren’t being played for
the Lombardi Trophy.
The theory is based on the idea that
bookies will be swamped action and watching their Super Bowl lines like
hawks because they're scared witless they’ll get killed on a prop bet
by some wise guy. Meanwhile, they might turn a blind eye to the other
games on the board. At least one Covers Expert thinks the idea might
hold water.
“There might be some truth to the bookmakers being distracted on Sunday with the heavy volume of Super Bowl action,” says Steve Merril,
“and this could mean the basketball lines are moved slower than
normal. This might enable smart shoppers to find line value on games
that should have been adjusted based on sharp money.”
If he’s right, it might be worthwhile to take a closer look at some of Sunday’s college basketball games.
Northwestern at Indiana
The
Wildcats are still looking for their first Big Ten win, but you might
see bettors trying their luck with the underdog. Indiana’s superstar
freshman Eric Gordon
had a bad night on Thursday in a loss to Wisconsin because he was
nursing an injured wrist. Although he’s not the injured list, people
might assume he's still not 100 percent in this one either. But
Gordon’s second half was much better than his first in Madison,
indicating his wrist will probably be fine. Even without him, the
Hoosiers defense is the real key to this game.
North Carolina-Florida State
Here’s an interesting little tidbit that I found in Marc Lawrence’s Handicapper’s Notebook:
The Tar Heels are just 6-5 straight-up and 4-7 ATS in the game the game
they play before their big showdown with Duke. That’s something to keep
in mind as they head into Tallahassee. Then again, the Seminoles are
looking terrible. They’ve dropped the cash in their last seven games
and they’re only 3-6 ATS at home this year. It's hard to imagine this
turning into anything but a UNC blowout.
George Washington at Temple
Temple
is quickly becoming every bettor’s favorite team. They put themselves
on the map with a blowout win as 8-point underdogs against a Xavier
team that was then ranked No. 20 in the nation and they’ve proven it
was no fluke, covering the spread in three of four games since then.
The only problem is that although this is a good team, the Owls are
only 2-5 ATS when they’re laying points. George Washington doesn’t look
good coming off five straight losses but those losses came against very
good teams with a combined 69-28 record. The Colonials might not be as
bad as they look.