You might not have known it, but this is the game you’ve been waiting for.

Projected odds

Chuck Esposito, assistant Vice President of Race and Sportsbook Operations at Caesar's Palace in Las Vegas, told Covers.com on Thursday that he expects Memphis to open as a 5 1/2-point favorite.

The betting breakdown

The biggest difference between these two teams is that the Volunteers are making money for their backers and the Tigers aren’t. Wednesday night’s steamrolling of Tulane was a positive sign for Memphis bettors, but it was only the second time in their last six games that they came away with the cash. Overall, Memphis is 13-11-2 ATS, but against major conference schools (in which the pointspreads have generally been a little more reasonable) they’re a more inspiring 4-2.

Tennessee has an eight-game win streak on the go and they’ve covered in six of those games. The season didn’t start out so profitably for the Vols but aside from a surprising loss at Kentucky a month ago, they’ve had little trouble winning games or covering the numbers recently. It should be noted, however, that Tennessee is just 4-4 ATS on the road and they’ll be in very hostile territory in Memphis Saturday night.

The series

Last year, the matchup took place earlier in the season and only Memphis was in the national rankings, but the Vols shocked the No. 16 Tigers with a 76-58 win as one-point home dogs. The raucous crowd in Knoxville gave UT a boost that it used to build an early lead, which it hung on to for the entire game.

There was a little extra intrigue added to the matchup when Memphis coach John Calipari said he would rather not continue the series because it doesn’t help his program’s recruiting. Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl said no program respects Tennessee less than Memphis.

The previous year, the game took place in Memphis and the Tigers won the game by nine points, but that was a half-point shy of the cover.

The primetime players

Tennessee:

Chris Lofton is the prime mover in the Tennessee machine. The senior guard leads the Volunteers with 15.4 points per game and since his early-season shooting slump ended after the Kentucky loss, Big Orange has been almost unbeatable. He was only 4-for-10 from the field against Auburn, but he hit four big three-pointers in a game that was never really much of a contest. When Tennessee destroyed Memphis last year, Lofton was unstoppable with 34 points, including six 3-pointers.

Ramar Smith: The Tigers must be worried after watching Smith bust out of his shooting slump Wednesday night. The point guard had been mired in an awful slump but he caught fire Wednesday and nailed six of his seven shots from the floor and he also hit his first three-ball in 13 games. 

Tyler Smith: This guy provides the “inside” in the Vols’ inside-out game. As 6-foot-6 forward, he chips in 13.4 points per game and plays hard on the boards, leading the team with 6.5 rebounds per game. He had a solid 13 points and 13 rebounds against Auburn. 

Memphis:

Chris Douglas-Roberts: He’ll be matched up against Lofton so everybody will want to keep an eye on this battle. Both players are excellent ball-handlers and shooters, but CDR has the advantage here because he’s the better defender. Both players are undersized (although Douglas-Roberts has the height advantage) and not particularly athletic, but with another year of experience under his belt, Douglas-Roberts should excel on both ends of the floor in this game.

Derrick Rose: On a team full of superstars, Rose is probably the brightest. He came into this season as one of the most talked about wunderkinds in the country and the top point guard recruit. But the season has been a bit of a letdown. Yes, Rose has produced magic moments on the court, but for a guy who was supposed to be the second coming of Jason Kidd, 4.3 assists per game isn’t exactly awe-inspiring. He has all the tools, but in a game like this experience could count for a lot and a freshman point guard could be a liability for Memphis.

Joey Dorsey: While Douglas-Roberts and Rose get all the glory, Dorsey does all the dirty work. He’s a big, nasty banger who leads the Tigers in rebounds and blocked shots. He was removed from the starting lineup for the last four games, however, before Callipari reinserted him for Wednesday. The move should give Dorsey the motivation he needs to intimidate the Tennessee frontcourt and use his muscle and athleticism to dominate in the paint.

Storylines

Memphis’ hidden flaw: Even though Memphis is the No. 1 team in the country, they are dead last among 341 Division I schools in free-throw shooting percentage at 58.3 percent. The Tigers still own a perfect record, but they came within a fraction of a second of losing last weekend when they nipped UAB 79-78. Chris Douglas-Roberts made a clutch free throw at the end of the game to secure the lead but Memphis was 12-for-22 from the line in the game.

Tennessee sharing the love: There isn’t a busier bench in the country than Pearl’s. While the Tigers also like to get their bench players involved, they can’t compete with the Tennessee reserves. Pearl substitutes his players like a hockey team, subbing guys in and out with almost every stoppage of play. Only Chris Lofton averages more than 27 minutes per game and 11 players are regularly getting 10 minutes or more on the floor. Pearl got 12 players involved in Wednesday’s win over Auburn and plans to do the same in Memphis Saturday.