Well, this is a bit of a surprise. After a season in which they couldn’t shake the doubters and second-guessers, the Memphis Tigers go into the Final Four laying chalk against UCLA, the pre-tournament favorite.

Before the tipoff of this year’s tourney, the UCLA Bruins were listed by Las Vegas oddsmakers at +450 to cut down the nets in San Antonio, while Memphis had the longest odds of any of the No. 1 seeds at +600. Despite a 33-1 record and a non-conference schedule that included eight Tournament teams, a lot of people thought Conference USA wasn’t an appropriate breeding ground for NCAA champions.

I guess after watching them dominate a Texas team that beat UCLA at Pauley Pavilion earlier this year, a lot of bettors changed their minds (bettors can be so fickle). This line opened with Memphis at -1 (a pick ‘em at one Vegas sportsbook) but a flood of Memphis money forced bookies to jack the spread to -2 and even -2 ½ at some shops.

It’s not surprising that people have changed their minds about this team. Against Texas, it was finally evident that the size and length across the board on this Tigers roster will tip the scales in their direction against almost any team in the country. Texas had no shortage of talented players, especially in the backcourt, but with Chris Douglas-Roberts at 6-foot-6 and Derrick Rose at 6-foot-3, the Texas guards couldn’t seem to get a good look at the basket and ended up going 10-34 from the floor. As a team, the Longhorns shot 36.2 percent from field-goal range and 32.1 percent from beyond the arc.

But the Bruins match up much better with the Memphis guards. At 6-foot-5, Josh Shipp is nearly as big as Douglas-Roberts and Russell Westbrook also has decent size for a guard. Darren Collison (6-foot-1) still gives up a couple of inches to Rose, so you can probably expect a big game from the Tigers’ freshman, whose play will go a long way in determining the outcome of this game. Rose, has taken advantage of size mismatches throughout the tournament and, in addition to his scoring output, has averaged six rebounds per game – not a contribution most teams would expect from a point guard.

Memphis also has some big men in the frontcourt, but against UCLA, it looks like they won’t have the advantage. Joey Dorsey (6-foot-9, 265 lbs) is usually able to outmuscle opponents in the paint, but against the 260-pound Kevin Love – probably the most skilled and athletic big man in the nation – he’ll have to worry about a lot more than fighting for position and wrangling rebounds. Although Dorsey is a good athlete, you have to give the edge to Love in that matchup.

Don’t be fooled. This will be a very different game from the one Memphis played with Texas. Although the Bruins lost to the Longhorns earlier this season, UCLA is a much more physical and balanced team and will be much more difficult to defend – particularly on the perimeter.

And then there’s the X-factor: Kevin Love. Dorsey is big enough to match up with the UCLA wunderkind, but when Love starts making fade-away jumpers and spin moves in the lane, Dorsey could find himself in foul trouble. Even if Dorsey manages to avoid fouls, UCLA will certainly try to get the ball in his hands as often as possible and he’s proven throughout this tournament that he’s more than equal to the challenge. If I had to choose between freshman phenoms that will take over this game, my money is on UCLA's big man.

Pick: UCLA