Sluggers struggle early on...
Midseason form is called what is for good reason. Despite extensive spring training, teams and players across baseball generally struggle coming out of the gate and the 2008 season has been no different.
Twenty of baseball’s 30 teams are scoring less than their season average from 2007. This has led to the under going 128-108 in the early going. On the whole, scoring is down nearly a full run per game. Oddsmakers will adjust to this trend in the early going but this kind of scoring can’t be considered a season-long trend.
The teams that have experienced the biggest offensive struggles are the same teams that crushed the ball last year. The top five scoring teams from a year ago – the New York Yankees, Philadelphia, Detroit, Boston and Colorado – have all seen significant drop-offs from last year.
The Yankees led the majors with 6.0 runs per game last year but have averaged just 2.8 runs through nine games for the biggest fall-off in the majors. Philadelphia is down 1.2 runs a game from last year, dropping from 5.5 runs per game to 4.3 per game this year.
Detroit’s offense, which was third in baseball with 5.5 runs per game in 2007, was expected to demolish records this year but has averaged just 2.7 runs through eight games. Defending world champion Boston has fallen from 5.4 runs a game last year to 3.3 per game this season. The National League’s world series representative, Colorado, is averaging just 3.1 runs per game after knocking in 5.3 runs a game last year.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, there are offensively inept teams from 2007 that have thrived in the opening weeks of the 2008 season. The White Sox were one of the worst offensive teams in baseball last year with just 4.3 runs per game. This year, they’re scoring 6.3 runs per contest.
In the National League, Arizona’s youngsters have started to blossom after a dismal 2007 campaign, directing the Diamondbacks offense to 6.0 runs per game after just 4.4 a game last season. Pittsburgh and Baltimore also boast offenses that have drastically improved.
Two divisions stand out as being particularly poor handling the bat this year. The National League West owns four of baseball’s worst eight offenses with the Padres, Dodgers, Giants and Rockies all averaging 3.6 runs per game or less. With the exception of the Colorado, each of those teams could see their struggles continue throughout the season.
The American League’s version is the Central Division. Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota and Detroit are all ranked in the bottom third of baseball in scoring. It’s a fair assumption that the Tigers (2.8 runs per game) and Indians (4.1 runs per game) will turn things around as both finished the 2007 season ranked in the top eight in runs. The Royals and Twins will more than likely continue to labor at the plate.
The Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Tigers and Rockies will almost certainly improve from the plate as each team owns a potent lineup from top to bottom. Additionally, teams like the White Sox, Diamondbacks and Orioles shouldn’t be expected to keep up their current paces. For now, though, the under looks like a safe play until teams and players reach that aforementioned midseason form.
