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Despite Yankees fearsome lineup, 'under' bets cashing..
Despite Yankees fearsome lineup, 'under' bets cashing..
By Covers.com Contributor | Published  05/4/2008 | MLB
Covers.com Contributor
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Yanks and under the total... are a hit...

Stop for a moment and think about the New York Yankees.

What comes immediately to mind?

Imposing, pinstriped batters crowding the plate and crushing baseballs into the short right field porch at Yankee Stadium?

A dugout packed to the brim with professional hitters who can wear out pitchers and produce runs any night of the week?

If that’s your impression, you’re not alone.

With batters like A-Rod, Jason Giambi, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada, etc., it’s not surprising people tend to view the Yankees as an offensive powder keg waiting to explode.

But that’s not exactly the case in reality.

Even though they had the ninth-most at-bats among major league clubs in the first month of the season, after 29 games the high-priced Yankees lineup produced only 125 runs – 19th out of 30 MLB clubs. As a team, they hit just .255 (17th in MLB) and had a .411 slugging percentage (13th).

And here’s the real shocker: the Yankees’ over/under record after the first month of the season was 8-20-1, meaning the under was a winning bet more than twice as often as the over.

“The primary reason is their sluggish offense,” says Covers Expert Ted Sevransky. “The Yanks have scored more than six runs in a game only four times all year. Jorge Posada is hurt. A-Rod is hurt. Jeter has been hurt. Jason Giambi and Robinson Cano are both off to terrible starts. The only starter hitting over .300 right now is Hideki Matsui.”

The starting pitching has been spotty, so you certainly can’t attribute the over/under results to that department. Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte have been good, but Mike Mussina has been average and youngsters Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes, who were expected to have breakout seasons this year, both have ERAs higher than 8.00 and now Hughes is out until July with a broken rib.

The bullpen, however, has been a huge factor. The combination of Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera have been devastating to opposing hitters and helped to keep teams from getting runs in the late innings.

And then there are the injuries. Alex Rodriguez is currently on the DL and Jorge Posada is injured as well. Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi and Cano hav also spent time on the sidelines dealing with injuries. That’s a big chunk of the Yankees offense missing from an already struggling lineup, but according to Chuck Esposito of Caesar's Palace Race and Sports Book, bettors haven’t caught on to the trend yet.

“The trend will affect the totals,” Esposito told Covers.com. “We keep a close eye on all trends, injuries, how the public is betting, etcetera, but the over is still a slightly more popular bet then the under.”

So it seems that either bettors haven’t noticed the trend, or they’re just waiting for the inevitable.

According to Sevransky, a club as talented as the Yankees can’t keep whiffing at the plate forever.

"This lineup is far too talented to continue slumping indefinitely,” the veteran handicapper said. “I suspect that the trend line for cashing on a daily basis with the Yankees under the total has come and gone. 

“As the weather warms up, I'll definitely be looking to bet New York over in selected spots, particularly against opposing starters with control problems because the Yankees lineup, despite their early season slump, is still extremely patient at the plate, taking walks and making opposing hurlers pay for those free passes.”


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