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NHL Mock Draft - Lottery Teams
NHL Mock Draft - Lottery Teams
By Rob Aquino | Published  06/21/2007 | Fantasy Hockey Grumblings - 2007-08 Season
Rob Aquino
Rob became an NHL and Buffalo Sabres fan at an early age – attending his first game in the 1975 finals (fog game, Rene Robert OT winner) – and it has been downhill virtually ever since. He pines for “The Aud” and a return to the blue and gold uniforms. Rob brings a wide knowledge of the NHL and their sordid history to his blurb column, as well as an unhealthy obsession for junior hockey; and in fact may he be the only American who ran his own OHL (Ontario Hockey League) fantasy league. Beyond his Grumblings here, Rob's work can also be found on his blog, Road Apples.  

View all articles by Rob Aquino
2007 NHL draft - Top 5



Tonight marks the symbolic beginning to the 2007-08 season, as the first round of the NHL Entry Draft will be held in Columbus, OH. As of now, the first five picks will go to:

1. Chicago
2. Philadelphia
3. Phoenix
4. Los Angeles
5. Washington

This isn’t considered a strong draft class overall, nevertheless there is no shortage of top-end talent.  This year is more intriguing than most in that when you look at the top 15-20 players generally considered the top prospects, they could be drafted in nearly any order.  Predicting who will go where is perhaps a fool's game, but a little semi-mindless speculation and analysis is always enjoyable.  With that in mind, I’d like to take a look at the five lottery teams this year – their general weaknesses and needs, and who I believe they should pick.

Again, I'm not intending these to be predictions, because so much goes on behind the scenes so to speak on which teams will draft which players, simply who I would take if I were in each club's position.


#1 pick:  Chicago Blackhawks

The Chicago Blackhawks hold the first selection in the draft for the first time in their history (likely shocking to those only familiar with their latest decade of failure, having made the playoffs only once since 1997) and GM Dale Tallon has implied that the choice is between forwards Patrick Kane, Kyle Turris, and James van Riemsdyk (barring any sort of trade, of course).

It sounds like Tallon may prefer the two-way physical play of Turris and Van Riemsdyk, as their size (6'0" and 6'3" respectively) gives them the advantage over the 5'9" Kane, but Kane is the most-likely to turn pro next season, which could be beneficial to getting fans excited about the Hawks again. But the Hawks have to be patient and continue their slow but emerging re-building process - if Jonathan Toews and Jack Skille progress as expected they should help provide Chicago with a fearsome combination a few years from now not seen since the days of Jeremy Roenick and Steve Larmer. If Tallon believes Kyle Turris - who is slated to play at the University of Wisconsin this fall - will be their #1 center for a decade starting three years from now that's the pick he needs to make: Kyle Turris at number one.

#2 pick:  Philadelphia Flyers

Coming off a shockingly disastrous season - only one year removed from finishing with 100 points - the Philadelphia Flyers may not be as bad-off as other teams in the top (actually, bottom) 5. Anything good that developed in the first post-lockout season completely unraveled last season, as promising second-year players like Jeff Carter and Mike Richards suffered through the sophomore jinx, both missing extensive time with injuries. Goaltending was a disaster for the Flyers as neither Antero Niittymaki nor Robert Esche provided support behind what was frankly a terribly immobile defence. The late-season trade with Buffalo that gained them veteran Martin Biron (whom they subsequently signed to a 2-year deal) shored up the goaltending, although Biron isn't the kind of keeper who can carry a bad team.

After this week’s trade-and-sign with Nashville to obtain Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen, the Flyers appear to stand at just over USD$42 million against the salary cap for next season, which certainly stands to limit much more off-season spending.  One question this raises is whether this will translate into a desire for a player who is NHL-ready or more of a longer-term project.

The Flyers own the 2nd-overall pick, and will be able to claim a top talent no matter what...although defence is where they need the most help, and this draft is definitely weighted towards offensive talent, at least at the top end. Gaining Braydon Coburn at the trading deadline for Alexei Zhitnik was an absolute steal, but there is still a need for a more veteran presence (Darien Hatcher doesn't count) on the blueline. Regardless, I'd be a little surprised if the Flyers took Karl Alzner or Keaton Ellerby (who, although is only listed at 187 lbs. stands at a towering 6'4") when there are still elite-level forwards available - even though I could see the physical Ellerby being a fan favourite.
 
Patrick Kane has rightfully earned a lot of praise for his fantastic first season in the OHL for London, but his 5'9" frame doesn't exactly fit into how the Flyers have historically built their roster. With other sizeable forwards like Mike Knuble, Jeff Carter, Scottie Upshall, and RJ Umberger, I see Philadelphia steering more towards James VanRiemsdyk but I personally like the idea of them taking Halifax's Jakub Voracek. Voracek is ranked as the #7 prospect by Central Scouting but his showing after one year in the QMJHL (having arrived from the Czech Republic speaking no English) was nothing short of dominant in every way, with 86 points in 59 games and adding 24 in just 12 playoff games. Voracek is ready to make the next step and join a Philadelphia
organization that hopes to rebound from the worst season in their history.


#3 pick: 
Phoenix Coyotes

Ahh, Phoenix. So much to pick on, so little time...but in this article we'll keep a focused criticism of the franchise on their drafting legacy. Of the 12 first-round picks they've made in their short and terrible 11-year history (has it been that long already?), the only one to become a star is Daniel Briere, who quite obviously has not been plying his trade for the Coyotes of late. Defensive forward Fredrik Sjostrom (#11, 2001 draft) has held a steady job for the 'Yotes over the past three seasons, but there has been no homegrown star power in the desert. To be fair, we can't fairly analyze recent draft history, which may eventually help boost their drafting reputation. They just signed their high-scoring 2005 first rounder Martin Hanzel to an entry level deal. Their highest pick - Blake Wheeler, 5th overall in 2004 - is currently excelling at the University of Minnesota. Wheeler's high school teammate Peter Mueller (#8, 2006 draft) scored 78 points for Everett (WHL) last year and has represented the USA at the past two World Junior Championships.

Yet there's no denying that this franchise's cycle of mediocrity has their roots in poor drafting. A team must expect the occasional first-round bust but Phoenix has taken that to extremes by almost literally never having success in a decade of drafts. Awful drafting has doomed the Phoenix organization to repeated mediocre finishes, only once finishing as high as second in their division. Here's an indictment of the entire organization: outside of Daniel Briere, never (since 1996) has the franchise drafted a single player who has scored 20 goals in an NHL season (the only one close being Trevor Letowski in 2000). Phoenix needs a lot, but what could help them take a big step forward both on the ice and at the gate would be an offensive dynamo.

The best fit for the Coyotes would be London Knights first-year sensation Patrick Kane. Although the chances of him still being available at the #3 slot are fairly slim, it wouldn't be unprecedented for a highly-acclaimed and odds-on favourite to go #1 to slip to the third spot - in 2002 Jay Bouwmeester was expected by many all season to be the top pick but on draft day he slipped to third, much to his surprise.

Although Phoenix is still far off from being a serious competitor, Kane's offensive wizardry is exactly what the Coyotes need to start them on the road back to respectability. Phoenix must make the hard decision to avoid ridiculous and backward-thinking signings of veterans and focus on a 3-5 year plan on making this team ready to challenge for the cup by the end of the decade. Kane could immediately be the best forward on the team by mid-season, with only Shane Doan able to challenge for that post. In the likely event that Kane is not available at the third spot, the Coyotes will likely take whomever is left of Kyle Turris and James vanRiemsdyk.

#4 pick:  Los Angeles Kings

At pick #4 we have the Los Angeles Kings. Despite bottoming out last year - winning only 27 games (better than only Philadelphia) and missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season - the Kings have a burgeoning stable of young talent and are not far off from making a run at a playoff spot. With young offensive talents such as Mike Cammalleri, Alexander Frolov, Dustin Brown, a future superstar in Anze Kopitar, and then Patrick O'Sullivan and Trevor Lewis on the horizon, within a few years the Kings could be one of the better offensive teams in the league. As was documented many times and especially by Kings fans, goaltending was the main reason the Kings went into the tank so early last season, with Dan Cloutier suffering the wrath of fans and feeling the heat of red lights on the back of his jersey until his season mercifully ended with hip surgery. Goaltending will have to be a temporary transitional phase for Los Angeles until top-flight prospect Jonathan Bernier of the QMJHL champion Lewiston Maineiacs is ready to turn pro. Make no mistake: Bernier is the Kings' goalie of the not-so-distant future, so the Kings will be looking for a skater at the four slot on Friday.

Where the Kings could and should continue to build is on the blueline. Veterans Rob Blake and Lubomir Visnovsky provide a decent-enough one-two, but with one year left on both of their deals and Blake pulling in USD$6 million, the Kings will likely either try to deal Blake this season or simply not re-sign him when he reaches the end of his contract. Highly regarded youngster Jack Johnson - acquired from Carolina in a pre-season fleecing last September - will start the year with a full-time job in L.A. but will likely undergo growing pains for a few seasons. The Kings' greatest need for depth is at defence and at the number four position it is highly likely that either of Karl Alzner or Keaton Ellerby will be available.

The thinking here is that Alzner of the Calgary Hitmen would be the best fit for the Kings. Even though scouts agree that he could take more risks offensively, what Los Angeles needs is to take care of play in their own zone and develop a quality three-zone system to be a contender when their young talent begins to peak a few years from now. NHL Central Scouting writes that Alzner "...is calm under pressure and composed with the puck. Has good positioning and reads the play well." Exactly the kind of player who GM Dean Lombardi could see playing 24-27 minutes every night in front of Jonathan Bernier three or four years from now.

#5 pick:  Washington Capitals

After yet another down year, the Capitals as they present are constructed - unlike a franchise like, say, Los Angeles - don't exactly have an impending crop of young players at the NHL level ready to help make the team take that next step towards respectability. Last year's fourth overall pick - center Nicklas Backstrom - returned to Europe in 2006 rather than immediately sign with Washington (although he was just signed by the Capitals to a three-year entry-level deal). Talented forward prospects like Eric Fehr and Francois Bouchard (QMJHL scoring leader with 125 points) should still be expected to be at least a year or two away from not only earning a full-time spot with the big club but having any sort of positive impact.

In terms of goaltending, the team drafted two in the top 34 picks last year in prospects Michal Neuvirth (2nd round, 2006) and Semen Varlamov (1st round, 2006) and both are developing nicely: Neuvirth led his Plymouth Whalers to their first OHL title and Memorial Cup last month, sporting a .932 save percentage over 18 playoff games; Varlamov excelled at this year's World Junior Championships (WJC) and is generally considered the top Russian goaltending prospect, putting up a 2.12 GAA in the Russian Super League. There should be good competition in coming years once longtime incumbent Olaf Kolzig finally retires.

In other words, barring a rash of trades and free agent signings this summer, the Capitals will still be building for a few years down the road (and have Alexander Ovechkin's restricted free agency status to look forward to after this coming season). Assuming that Washington's brass feels the same way, trying to figure out the direction of their first round selection is intriguing. Finding that one specific position in the Capitals' organization that they need to upgrade is difficult, and at the number five selection they could reasonably be expected to take whom they deem is the most-talented player available. If I'm going by my biased assumptions of the first four selections, James VanRiemsdyk and Jakub Voracek won't be available (if they are, Washington would be well off selecting either one)

The Capitals could continue their European invasion by drafting Alexei Cherepanov, the top-ranked European in the draft. Cherepanov will help eventually give the Capitals an outstanding top 4 with Alexander Ovechkin, Niklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin - perhaps as early as next season. Cherepanov was the top forward at the WJC this past winter and scouts rave about his offensive presence and creativity. The knock is that he can be maddeningly inconsistent and disappears at times. By drafting the Russian and putting fellow countryman Ovechkin at his side, the Capitals may be able to take this high-risk / high- reward player and help transform their club into an offensive dynamo over the next few seasons.




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