Rob became an NHL and Buffalo Sabres fan at an early age – attending his first game in the 1975 finals (fog game, Rene Robert OT winner) – and it has been downhill virtually ever since. He pines for “The Aud” and a return to the blue and gold uniforms. Rob brings a wide knowledge of the NHL and their sordid history to his blurb column, as well as an unhealthy obsession for junior hockey; and in fact may he be the only American who ran his own OHL (Ontario Hockey League) fantasy league. Beyond his Grumblings here, Rob's work can also be found on his blog, Road Apples.
Tonight marks the symbolic beginning to the 2007-08
season, as the first round of the NHL Entry Draft will be held
in Columbus, OH.
As of now, the first five picks will go to:
1. Chicago
2. Philadelphia
3. Phoenix
4. Los Angeles
5. Washington
This isn’t considered a strong draft class overall, nevertheless there is no
shortage of top-end talent.This year is
more intriguing than most in that when you look at the top 15-20 players
generally considered the top prospects, they could be drafted in nearly any
order.Predicting who will go where is
perhaps a fool's game, but a little semi-mindless speculation and analysis is
always enjoyable.With that in mind, I’d
like to take a look at the five lottery teams this year – their general
weaknesses and needs, and who I believe they should pick.
Again, I'm not intending these to be predictions, because so
much goes on behind the scenes so to speak on which teams will draft which
players, simply who I would take if I were in each club's position.
#1 pick: Chicago Blackhawks
The Chicago Blackhawks hold the first selection in the draft for the first time
in their history (likely shocking to those only familiar with their latest
decade of failure, having made the playoffs only once
since 1997) and GM Dale Tallon has implied that the choice is
between forwards Patrick
Kane, Kyle
Turris, and James van
Riemsdyk (barring any sort of trade, of course).
It sounds like Tallon may
prefer the two-way physical play of Turris and Van Riemsdyk, as their size
(6'0" and 6'3" respectively) gives them the advantage over the
5'9" Kane, but Kane is the most-likely to turn pro next season, which
could be beneficial to getting fans excited about the Hawks again. But the
Hawks have to be patient and continue their slow but emerging re-building
process - if Jonathan Toews and Jack Skille progress as expected
they should help provide Chicago with a fearsome combination a few years from
now not seen since the days of Jeremy Roenick and Steve Larmer. If Tallon believes Kyle Turris - who
is slated to play at the
University of Wisconsin this fall - will be their #1 center for a decade
starting three years from now that's the pick he needs to make: Kyle
Turris at number one.
#2 pick:Philadelphia Flyers
Coming off a shockingly disastrous season - only one year removed from
finishing with 100 points - the Philadelphia Flyers may not be as bad-off as
other teams in the top (actually, bottom) 5. Anything good that developed in
the first post-lockout season completely unraveled last season, as promising
second-year players like Jeff Carter and Mike Richards suffered
through the sophomore jinx, both missing extensive time with injuries.
Goaltending was a disaster for the Flyers as neither Antero Niittymaki
nor Robert Esche provided support behind what was frankly a terribly
immobile defence. The late-season trade with Buffalo
that gained them veteran Martin Biron (whom they subsequently signed to
a 2-year deal) shored up the goaltending, although Biron isn't the kind of
keeper who can carry a bad team.
After this week’s trade-and-sign with Nashville
to obtain Scott Hartnell and Kimmo Timonen, the Flyers appear to
stand at just over USD$42 million against the salary cap for next season, which
certainly stands to limit much more off-season spending.One question this raises is whether this will
translate into a desire for a player who is NHL-ready or more of a longer-term
project.
The Flyers own the 2nd-overall pick, and will be able to claim a top talent no
matter what...although defence is where they need the most help, and this draft
is definitely weighted towards offensive talent, at least at the top end.
Gaining Braydon
Coburn at the trading deadline for Alexei Zhitnik was an
absolute steal, but there is still a need for a more veteran presence (Darien Hatcher doesn't
count) on the blueline. Regardless, I'd be a little surprised if the Flyers
took Karl Alzner or Keaton Ellerby (who, although is only listed
at 187 lbs. stands at a towering 6'4") when there are still elite-level
forwards available - even though I could see the physical Ellerby being a fan
favourite. Patrick Kane has rightfully earned a lot of praise for his fantastic
first season in the OHL for London,
but his 5'9" frame doesn't exactly fit into how the Flyers have
historically built their roster. With other sizeable forwards like Mike
Knuble, Jeff Carter, Scottie Upshall, and RJ Umberger,
I see Philadelphia steering more
towards James VanRiemsdyk but I personally like the idea of them taking Halifax's
Jakub
Voracek. Voracek is ranked as the #7 prospect by Central Scouting but
his showing after one year in the QMJHL (having arrived from the Czech Republic
speaking no English) was nothing short of dominant in every way, with 86 points
in 59 games and adding 24
in just 12 playoff games. Voracek
is ready to make the next step and join a Philadelphia
organization that hopes to rebound from the worst season in their history.
#3 pick:Phoenix Coyotes
Ahh, Phoenix. So much to pick on,
so little time...but in this article we'll keep a focused criticism of the
franchise on their drafting legacy. Of the 12 first-round picks they've made in
their short and terrible 11-year history (has it been that long already?), the
only one to become a star is Daniel Briere, who quite obviously has not
been plying his trade for the Coyotes of late. Defensive forward Fredrik
Sjostrom (#11,
2001 draft) has held a steady job for the 'Yotes over the past three
seasons, but there has been no homegrown star power in the desert. To be fair,
we can't fairly analyze recent draft history, which may eventually help boost
their drafting reputation. They just signed
their high-scoring 2005 first rounder Martin Hanzel to an entry level
deal. Their highest pick - Blake Wheeler, 5th overall in 2004
- is currently excelling
at the University of Minnesota. Wheeler's high school teammate Peter
Mueller (#8,
2006 draft) scored 78 points for Everett (WHL) last year and has
represented the USA
at the past two World Junior Championships.
Yet there's no denying that this franchise's cycle of mediocrity has their
roots in poor drafting. A team must expect the occasional first-round bust but Phoenix
has taken that to extremes by almost literally never having success in a decade
of drafts. Awful drafting has doomed the Phoenix
organization to repeated mediocre finishes, only once finishing as high as
second in their division. Here's an indictment of the entire organization:
outside of Daniel Briere, never (since 1996) has the franchise drafted a single
player who has scored 20 goals in an NHL season (the only one close being Trevor
Letowski in 2000). Phoenix
needs a lot, but what could help them take a big step forward both on the ice
and at the gate would be an offensive dynamo.
The best fit for the Coyotes would be London
Knights first-year sensation Patrick Kane. Although the chances of
him still being available at the #3 slot are fairly slim, it wouldn't be unprecedented
for a highly-acclaimed and odds-on favourite to go #1 to slip to the third spot
- in 2002 Jay Bouwmeester was expected by many all season to be the top pick
but on
draft day he slipped to third, much to his surprise.
Although Phoenix is still far off
from being a serious competitor, Kane's offensive wizardry is exactly what the
Coyotes need to start them on the road back to respectability. Phoenix
must make the hard decision to avoid ridiculous and backward-thinking signings
of veterans and focus on a 3-5 year plan on making this team ready to challenge
for the cup by the end of the decade. Kane could immediately be the best
forward on the team by mid-season, with only Shane Doan able to
challenge for that post. In the likely event that Kane is not available at the
third spot, the Coyotes will likely take whomever is left of Kyle Turris
and James vanRiemsdyk.
#4 pick:Los Angeles Kings
At pick #4 we have the Los Angeles Kings. Despite bottoming
out last year - winning only 27 games (better than only Philadelphia) and
missing the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season - the Kings have a
burgeoning stable of young talent and are not far off from making a run at a
playoff spot. With young offensive talents such as Mike Cammalleri, Alexander
Frolov, Dustin Brown, a future superstar in Anze Kopitar, and
then Patrick O'Sullivan and Trevor
Lewis on the horizon, within a few years the Kings could be one of the
better offensive teams in the league. As was documented
many times and especially
by Kings fans, goaltending was the main reason the Kings went into the tank
so early last season, with Dan Cloutier suffering the wrath of fans
and feeling the heat of red lights on the back of his jersey until his season
mercifully ended with hip surgery. Goaltending will have to be a temporary
transitional phase for Los Angeles
until top-flight prospect Jonathan Bernier of the QMJHL champion
Lewiston Maineiacs is ready to turn pro. Make no mistake: Bernier is the Kings'
goalie of the not-so-distant future, so the Kings will be looking for a skater
at the four slot on Friday.
Where the Kings could and should continue to build is on the blueline. Veterans
Rob Blake and Lubomir Visnovsky provide a decent-enough one-two,
but with one year left on both of their deals and Blake pulling in USD$6
million, the Kings will likely either try to deal Blake this season or simply
not re-sign him when he reaches the end of his contract. Highly regarded
youngster Jack Johnson - acquired from
Carolina in a pre-season fleecing last September - will start the year with
a full-time job in L.A. but will
likely undergo growing pains for a few seasons. The Kings' greatest need for
depth is at defence and at the number four position it is highly likely that
either of Karl
Alzner or Keaton
Ellerby will be available.
The thinking here is that Alzner of the Calgary Hitmen would be
the best fit for the Kings. Even though scouts agree that he could take
more risks offensively, what Los Angeles
needs is to take care of play in their own zone and develop a quality
three-zone system to be a contender when their young talent begins to peak a
few years from now. NHL Central Scouting writes that Alzner "...is calm
under pressure and composed with the puck. Has good positioning and reads the
play well." Exactly the kind of player who GM Dean Lombardi
could see playing 24-27 minutes every night in front of Jonathan Bernier three
or four years from now.
#5 pick: Washington Capitals
After yet another down year, the Capitals as they present
are constructed - unlike a franchise like, say, Los
Angeles - don't exactly have an impending crop of young players at the NHL
level ready to help make the team take that next step towards respectability.
Last year's fourth overall pick - center Nicklas Backstrom - returned to
Europe in 2006 rather than immediately sign with Washington (although he was just
signed by the Capitals to a three-year entry-level deal). Talented forward
prospects like Eric
Fehr and Francois
Bouchard (QMJHL scoring leader with 125 points) should still be
expected to be at least a year or two away from not only earning a full-time
spot with the big club but having any sort of positive impact.
In terms of goaltending, the team drafted two in the top 34 picks last year in
prospects Michal Neuvirth (2nd round, 2006) and Semen Varlamov
(1st round, 2006) and both are developing nicely: Neuvirth led his Plymouth
Whalers to their first OHL title and Memorial Cup last month, sporting a .932
save percentage over 18 playoff games; Varlamov excelled at this year's World
Junior Championships (WJC) and is generally considered the top Russian
goaltending prospect, putting up a 2.12 GAA in the Russian Super League. There
should be good competition in coming years once longtime incumbent Olaf Kolzig
finally retires.
In other words, barring a rash of trades and free agent signings this summer,
the Capitals will still be building for a few years down the road (and have Alexander
Ovechkin's restricted free agency status to look forward to after this
coming season). Assuming that Washington's
brass feels the same way, trying to figure out the direction of their first
round selection is intriguing. Finding that one specific position in the
Capitals' organization that they need to upgrade is difficult, and at the
number five selection they could reasonably be expected to take whom they deem
is the most-talented player available. If I'm going by my biased assumptions of
the first four selections, James VanRiemsdyk and Jakub Voracek
won't be available (if they are, Washington
would be well off selecting either one)
The Capitals could continue their European invasion by drafting Alexei
Cherepanov, the top-ranked European in the draft. Cherepanov will help
eventually give the Capitals an outstanding top 4 with Alexander Ovechkin,
Niklas Backstrom and Alexander Semin - perhaps as early as next season.
Cherepanov was the top forward at the WJC this past winter and scouts rave
about his offensive presence and creativity. The knock is that he can be
maddeningly inconsistent and disappears at times. By drafting the Russian and
putting fellow countryman Ovechkin at his side, the Capitals may be able to
take this high-risk / high- reward player and help transform their club into an
offensive dynamo over the next few seasons.