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Lowe turned future assets into goaltender Dwayne Roloson...
MARKET WATCH
A
quiet deadline may be in the cards...
Here's a question: Does dead silence, throat-clearing and the occasional “um” make for good television or sports
radio? We may soon find out...
With major sports networks putting aside
massive blocks of time to cover the annual hockey addicts' festival of
fun--otherwise known as the NHL trade deadline--producers are hoping for
a fury of rumors and activity come February 26.
It may not happen.
A combination of never-before-seen, league-wide parity, coupled with the
fact that two general managers have already been shown the door this
season, suggests that this year's deadline may be the quietist in recent
history.
The fear is that there won't be enough sellers to stoke the fires and
get the movement we've seen in the past. With only 3-6 teams facing the
obvious certainty of their also-ran situation, there may not be enough
Grade "A" beef on the market to turn things into the frenzy that has
become customary in the hockey world.
The hockey transaction world is usually divided into three distinct
categories: Pre-Christmas, pre-deadline and the actual deadline day.
Consider these numbers...
During the 2005-06 season, there were a total of 71 trades: 23 occurred
before Christmas, 23 came before the deadline and 25 happened on
deadline day itself. Last season was quite similar with 17 before
Christmas, 33 before the deadline--with more teams trying to get a jump
on the market--and then an additional 25 deals on deadline day for a
total of 75.
So far this season, the numbers have fallen off dramatically. The
2007-08 season has seen only 18 trades to date, comprised of 11 deals
before Christmas and seven since the calendar flipped over to 2008.
Clearly the art of the deal is in some serious decline when it comes to
building or galvanizing NHL hockey teams. If this trend is any
indication, hockey pundits may find themselves filling four hours of
deadline coverage with only eight or nine transactions to talk about.
Past Deadlines
Historically, the only teams that have sold assets at the deadline were
the teams that clearly didn't have a chance to make the postseason under
any circumstances. Clubs sitting outside of a playoff position, but
within striking distance, usually try to load up and make a push to get
into the postseason dance--though in hindsight some would have been
better served to put veteran assets on the table and re-stock the
shelves for the future.
When push has come to shove, the admittance of a failed season has
proven to be too much for many a general manager. However, the moves
they've made that turned teams into first-round fodder have likely been
the true reason for their job insecurity.
Two such examples from the 2007 trade deadline were the New York
Islanders' acquisition of Ryan
Smyth and the Atlanta Thrashers' trade for Keith
Tkachuk. Both were flashy deals that saw the Isles and Thrash
give up future assets to secure a push into the playoffs--and beyond. In
the end, both resulted in a swift first-round playoff exit and the
exodus of prized jewels to greener pastures. In the case of Tkachuk, he
went back to St. Louis. Smyth signed with Colorado.
A team further up the standings, the Detroit Red Wings, made a similar
move in picking up the controversial Todd
Bertuzzi last year. The difference with this move was the fact
Bertuzzi headed to an already formidable roster. The Wings were
eventually cast aside by the Anaheim Ducks but the move itself made
sense because the Wings were a good bet to advance deep in the
postseason--which they did. Still, the move cost them top center
prospect Shawn
Matthias.
The best deals made at this time last year were by teams going nowhere
but with an opportunity to set up their rosters for seasons to come. The
Flyers added Martin
Biron in goal for a second-round pick--a move that maximized the
return for a potential UFA for the Sabres and allowed Philadelphia to
start what was to become a complete overall for the 2007-08 season. It
was a good trade for both clubs.
Similarly, the St. Louis Blues picked up what was to become a first-line
player this season when they sent defenseman Dennis
Wideman to the Bruins for Brad
Boyes. The well-traveled Boyes has been great under coach Andy
Murray, while Wideman has forged his way to a top-four defense role on
the Bruins. Once again, this was a great deal for both teams.
What is needed in modern NHL times is for general managers to think
outside the box, something that is tough to execute without job
security. The average roster will roll over at least 20 per cent each
and every summer due to the younger free agency age and older players
being pushed out of the game. Teams with their eye on the big picture
will resort to selling off assets more often than not, with only the top
10 teams in the circuit looking to load up.
A seller's market dictates overpayment for assets, something that is
ill-advised for middle-of-the-road teams that are unlikely to turn a
bidding war victory into a real difference-maker in an otherwise average
season. Of course, there are exceptions: Oilers GM Kevin Lowe turned
future assets into goaltender Dwayne
Roloson and winger Sergei
Samsonov at the 2006 deadline--a move that had many scratching
their heads, given the fact the Oilers were a ninth place club in a
death match with the Vancouver Canucks just to secure the eighth and
final playoff spot and a date with the powerhouse Detroit Wings.
Instead, the Oilers beat the Wings, Ducks and Sharks along the way to a
surprise run to the Cup finals--very much fueled by the steadying play
of Roloson in the net. Had the Oilers missed the playoffs despite the
moves, Lowe's job might have been in jeopardy. Tossing aside a
first-round pick (Roloson deal), a second-round pick, center Marty
Reasoner and a prospect (Samsonov deal) is quite a shed of
futures for a team that was a pretty poor bet to go anywhere.
In the end, the 2008 trade deadline--or at least the Hollywood angle of
the event--hangs completely on the shoulders of general managers' and
team owners' ability to look in the mirror and call the season for what
it is. If 24 teams find themselves competing hard for a handful of
assets, it may be the quietest deadline in modern history. The key will
be the middle-of-the-road clubs that will finish between sixth and 10th
in each conference, as they could provide the player liquidity needed to
deadline day the event everyone hopes for.
The salary cap in the new CBA has altered the team building timeline
significantly the past few seasons, but only the teams with the humility
to admit their season is going nowhere fast will be in line to take full
advantage.
