Eric Staal has averaged 15 power play goals in each of the last three years.
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Everything you need to know for the all-important draft.
By far the most important day for fantasy hockey players is draft day. You must approach this day with confidence, knowledge and that essential “edge” that will separate you from your fellow fantasy players. Below are 10 draft day tips that will give you that “edge” and propel your team into championship status.
#1 Do Your Homework
If you are serious about winning or at the very least, finishing in the money in your league, you’ve got to do your homework. The first step is to create a wish list, in order, of players you would love to have on your team. If you are in a keeper league, now is the time to “trim the fat” and cross off any undesirable players, while circling the keepers. For rotisserie style pools, put a maximum dollar amount per player on your wish list that you will not exceed. Assess your team-examine your strengths and weaknesses and find players that will help overcome those weaknesses. If you are keeping players from last season, see if their linemates will be available and try to snare them at the draft. There’s nothing more powerful than having linemates on your team-whenever one player scores a goal, the linemate will usually get an assist and the plus/minus will doubly benefit. Wouldn't you have loved to have both Evgeni Malkin and Petr Sykora or the Sedin twins on your team last season? Finally, refrain from overindulging in alcoholic beverages while at the draft table-there’s nothing worse than going on a bender and shouting out a player like Harold Snepts, who has been out of the NHL for years.
#2 Avoid The Chronically Injured Player
Draft day tip #2 deals with players who are chronically injured, season after season. These players are to be avoided at all costs-you do not want players who you are relying on to put up good offensive stats go down with an injury for an extended period of time. I am not talking about players who occasionally miss some games or sit out some games to get rested. I’m referring to players who, for some reason, are perennially afflicted with various maladies and wind up missing extended periods of playing time. Fantasy players who select such players have to scramble to find decent substitutes when they go down which could result in unnecessary transaction costs. Do yourself a favor-avoid these players no matter how cheap they may be or how enticing they may be. You don’t need the headaches.
Tim Connolly-Buf: We keep waiting for Connolly to put in a full season but unfortunately, lingering post concussion syndrome as well as other injuries have caused him to miss a total of 133 games the past three seasons.
Martin Havlat-Chi: Has never played a full season in his NHL career and in the last three seasons, Havlat has missed a total of 109 games.
Erik Cole- Edm: Has missed an average of 14 games per season the past three seasons.
Maxim Afinogenov-Buf: Has missed 26 games each of the past two seasons and has only played a full season once in eight seasons.
Brian Pothier-Wsh: Has missed a total of 76 games the past three seasons.
Scott Walker-Car: Walker has not played a full season in 12 years.
Mattias Ohlund-Van: A perennial member of the chronic injury list, Ohlund has missed an average of 13 games each of the past three seasons.
Mike Sillinger-NYI: Sillinger is coming off of a serious hip injury and hasn’t played a full season the past five years.
Jaroslav Spacek-Buf: Missed 39 games the past two seasons and 69 games the past four seasons.
Joni Pitkanen-Car: Has missed time in each of the past four seasons.
Bryan McCabe- Fla: Has played only one full season since 2002.
Rod Brind’Amour- Car: Has missed games the past four seasons.
Alexei Ponikarovsky-Tor: Missed 10 games in 06-07 and 16 last season.
A few likely early to mid-rounders ( Jonathan Cheechoo, Simon Gagne, Ryan Smyth, David Legwand, Tomas Holmstrom) have also been hit with injuries the past few seasons, so tread cautiously.
#3 Look For The Bounce Back Player
While tip #2 dealt with players who are habitually injured, tip #3 deals with players who suffered an injury last season compromising their offensive numbers. These players do not get injured often and are not in the same category as those listed above, so you can expect a return to good offensive production this upcoming season. Remember, some fantasy players don't do their homework and solely rely on last season's stats, so some of these players may be bargains at the draft table.
Joffrey Lupul- Phi
Chuck Kobasew- Bos
Jere Lehtinen-Dal
Alexander Semin- Wsh
Ray Whitney-Car
Matt Cullen-Car
Shawn Horcoff-Edm
Dan Boyle- SJ
Richard Zednik-Fla
Shea Weber-Nsh
#4 Beware Of The Career Year
Every season there are a number of players who rise to the occasion and have a spectacular season, some even having a career year. Fantasy players are advised to proceed with caution regarding these players unless they have been in the league for less than 3 seasons. If the player has never put up numbers similar to the previous season, poolsters would be wise to pass on those players or at the very least, select them in later rounds on draft day. For whatever reason- injuries, a new contract, complacency-these players have difficulty matching their career-year numbers the following season. This is an extremely high percentage play that fantasy players should note. Last season, we advised against the following players as a decrease in point production was likely as they were coming off of a career year: Vincent Lecavalier, Dany Heatley, Martin St-Louis, Marian Hossa, Daniel Briere, Olli Jokinen, Daniel Sedin, Michael Nylander, Ray Whitney, Andrew Brunette, Henrik Sedin, Alex Tanguay, Slava Kozlov, Kristian Huselius, Daymond Langkow, Saku Koivu, Alex Frolov, Jason Blake, Chris Drury, JP Dumont, Sheldon Souray, Dan Boyle, David Legwand, Erik Cole, Danius Zubrus, Jaime Langenbrunner, Martin Erat, Jochen Hecht, Brian Rafalski, Kimmo Timonen, Chris Clark and Phillipe Boucher. Out of the 32 players we listed, 29 had lower point totals; two had exactly the same total as the previous season (Erat and Rafalski); and only JP Dumont showed a slight increase over the previous season.
For this season, players that have scored more than 50 points and are coming off of a career year and have been in the league longer than 3 years include:
Alex Ovechkin, Jarome Iginla, Pavel Datsyuk, Jason Spezza, Henrik Zetterberg, Mike Ribiero, Marian Gaborik, Derek Roy, Jason Pominville, Shane Doan , Mike Richards, Brenden Morrow, JP Dumont, Tomas Plekanec, Rick Nash, Zach Parise, Brian Campbell, Mark Streit, Patrick Sharp, Nikolai Zherdev, Andrei Markov, Nik Antropov, Radim Vrbata, Cory Perry, Jeff Carter, Patrick O’ Sullivan, Antoine Vermette, Chris Higgins, Zdeno Chara, Ed Jovanovski, Ryan Malone, RJ Umberger.
Expect a decrease in points from last season for these players.
#5 Powerplay Can Save The Day
Because most fantasy leagues count power play goals as a scoring category, it is imperative to select players who are proficient in this area. There are certain players who consistently excel in producing power play goals. Below are players that have put up primo power play numbers the past 2-3 seasons. Look to these players to bolster your scoring stats.
Ilya Kovalchuk-Atl: dropped to 16 last season but has a 3-year average of 20 PPGs.
Dany Heatley-Ott: has averaged 18 PPGs the past 3 seasons.
Chris Drury-NYR: always produces on the power play and has a 3-year average of 15 PPGs per season.
Ryan Smyth-Col: prior to last season’s injury plagued year, Smyth has a 2-year average of 17 PPGs.
Alexander Ovechkin-Wsh: finished in the top 10 the past three seasons and has a 3-year average of 20 PPGs.
Patrick Marleau-SJ: took a dip last season but still has a 3-year average of 14 per year.
Eric Staal-Car: has a 3-year average of 15 PPGs per season.
Jarome Iginla-Cgy: has averaged 15 PPGs the past 3 seasons.
Mike Cammalleri-LA: has a 3-year average of 14 PPGs per season.
Henrik Zetterberg-Det: has a 3-year average of 15 PPGs per season.
Olli Jokinen-Pho: has an average of 14 PPGs the past three seasons.
Thomas Vanek-Buf: has scored 45 PPGs the past three seasons.
Daniel Sedin-Van: has averaged 13 PPGs the past three seasons.
Dustin Brown-LA: has scored 25 PPGs the past two seasons.
Michael Ryder-Mtl: prior to last season’s horror show, he scored 35 PPGs from 2005-2007. He finds himself in new surroundings and if used properly, he can hit double digits in PPGs again.
#6 Shorthanders Come In Handy
Shorthanded goals are always hard to come by but they offer fantasy teams nothing but positives in return. To go along with the point for a goal and the shot on net, the player also gets a plus in the plus/minus category. In fantasy circles, the shorthanded goal earns the player 2 specialty points and these can help propel a player's stats. Players to key in on this season for shorthanded goals include:
Martin St-Louis-TB: has scored a total of 21 SHGs the past 5 seasons.
Kris Draper-Det: has scored 13 SHGs the past 4 seasons.
Steve Sullivan-Nsh: missed last season with an injury but in the prior four seasons had scored 11 SHGs.
Marian Hossa-Det: has scored 12 SHGs the past 3 seasons.
Antoine Vermette-Ott: has scored 13 SHGs the past 3 seasons.
Mike Richards-Phi: has scored 9 SHGs the past two seasons.
Patrick Sharp-Chi: has scored 10 SHGs the past two seasons.
Daniel Alfredsson-Ott: has scored 14 SHGs the past three seasons.
#7 Look For Good Plus/Minus Stats
If your fantasy league uses plus/minus as a stat, then you know the frustration of having a 20-goal scorer who is –20. This situation is tantamount to one step forward, two steps back; for all of the gains you accrue for goal scoring, you fall back in plus/minus points. There are teams who consistently have good plus/minus ratings and those that have very bad ratings. Concentrate on players from teams who have a good record and a good plus/minus rating. If you were to look at the 20 worst plus/minus ratings for last season, you would notice that the 20 consisted of the following:
Three from Los Angeles (Johnson, Handzus, Blake)
Three from Tampa Bay ( Ward, Boyle, St. Louis)
Two from Atlanta (McCarthy, Exelby)
Two from Edmonton (Stoll, Gagner)
Two from St. Louis (McDonald, Mayers)
Two from Washington (Nylander, Semin)
One each from Nashville (Bonk), Philadelphia (Briere), Islanders (Comrie), San Jose (Marleau), and Florida (Jokinen)
One from Dallas: Brad Richards, who played the first ¾ of the season in Tampa Bay
As you can see, 15 players out of the worst 20 either played for the entire season or a large part of it for teams that did not make the playoffs. Avoid taking players from teams that are not expected to do well. Concentrate on players from teams who should have a good record and a good plus/minus rating. If you look at the top 20 plus/minus players from last season, you will see that 18 out of the top 20 were from Dallas, Ottawa, Detroit, Calgary, Washington, Colorado, New Jersey and Anaheim; all teams that were projected to perform well A player who only scores 10 goals but has a +15 plus/minus rating is more beneficial to your team! Teams to concentrate on include: Detroit, Anaheim, Colorado, NY Rangers, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, Vancouver, San Jose and Calgary.
#8 Look For Players Who Like To Shoot The Puck
If your fantasy or rotisserie league uses shots on goal as a point category, then it certainly behooves you to find quality players who excel in this area. Common sense dictates that the more a player shoots the puck, the greater the possibility of scoring a goal. There are players that consistently love to shoot the puck and their SOG are always above 200 for the season. If you were to look at a list of players that have been in the top 20 in SOG for the past 2 seasons, there will be such familiar names as Alex Ovechkin, Olli Jokinen, Marian Hossa, Ilya Kovalchuk and Vinny Lecavalier. Problem is, these players are likely first-rounders and selected because they are well rounded and put up good numbers in all categories. Below is a list of players that are not likely to be first round selections and who love to shoot the puck.
Jason Blake-Tor: has averaged 287 SOG a season for the past five seasons. He cracked the 300 mark in 2005-06 and continued last season with 332 shots., but he scored just 15 goals dropping his shooting percentage way down.
Brian Rolston-Min: For the past six seasons, he has averaged 291 SOG.
Brian Gionta-NJ: Loves to shoot the puck and has averaged 247 shots the past three seasons.
Eric Staal-Car: Staal has averaged 297 SOG the past three seasons.
Brad Richards-TB: Richards loves to shoot the puck and has averaged 257 shots a season for the past six seasons.
Jonathan Cheechoo-SJ: Cheechoo had a two year average of 284 shots prior to last season and should get back on track this season.
Scott Gomez-NYR: Has a two year average of 245 shots.
Patrik Elias-NJ: When healthy, Elias is always in the top 20 and has a two year average of 265 shots.
Other notables:
Dion Phaneuf-Cal
Henrik Zetterberg-Det
Daniel Alfredsson-Ott
Brendan Shanahan-FA
Simon Gagne-Phi
Zach Parise-NJ
Shooting percentage is one area where it is difficult to forecast what a player will do. If your league uses shooting percentage as a point category, then you must find players who have a good shooting percentage in order to tally points. There are a few players who consistently have a good shooting percentage season after season. I'm not talking about players who appear in a handful of games, take 10 shots and score two goals. What I look for in a player is a shooting percentage of 15% or better. Players who have notched good percentages over the past few seasons are:
Alex Tanguay-Mtl: has averaged 19.7% the past five seasons.
Nathan Horton-Fla: has a career shooting percentage average of 15.4%
Tomas Holmstrom-Det: has averaged 18.2% shooting percentage the past five seasons.
Chris Drury-NYR: dropped a bit last season but still has a three year average of 15.8%
Kristian Huselius-Cgy: has averaged just shy of 15% the past three seasons.
Ryan Smyth-Col: If you throw out the injury riddled last season, Smyth has averaged 18.2% the prior two seasons.
Mike Ribeiro-Dal: led the NHL in shooting percentage last season and has a four year average of 18.3%
As you can see, if you do your homework prior to draft day, you can find players who give you an honest shooting percentage year after year.
#9 Bad Boys, Bad Boys, What You Gonna Do?
If your fantasy league counts penalty minutes as a category, then it’s best to find some players who accumulate penalty minutes while offering some offensive potential. You can basically waste a roster spot if you fill it with a uni-dimensional player that just drops the gloves such as Riley Cote, Colton Orr, George Parros, Donald Brashear, Andrew Peters and Georges Laraque. Key on players that regularly take a shift, score some goals and who are consistently in the top 25 or so in penalty minutes. Examples include:
Chris Neil-Ott: has averaged 194 PIMs the past four seasons.
Sean Avery-Dal: has averaged 200 PIMs the past five seasons.
Ian Laperriere-Col: has piled up 273 PIMs the past two seasons.
Steve Ott- Dal: more than a cement head as he had 22 points to go along with 147 penalty minutes last season.
Daniel Carcillo-Pho: led the NHL in PIMs last season with 324 but also had 13 goals and 24 points.
#10 Don’t Overlook Goaltending
On draft day, fantasy players concentrate mostly on offensive players because of the points they can generate. Goaltenders, although critical, sometimes get relegated to the back burner. The reason for this is simple: goaltending only counts for a few categories in most leagues. Wins, save percentage and goals against average are the most popular categories for goaltenders with some leagues giving points for shutouts. However, goaltending points can more than make up for a few forwards that have the scoring blahs, so it is important to select the goaltender that is going to help your team. Concentrate on netminders that play loads of minutes, play for a good offensive squad as well as a sound defensive team and who handles loads of shots.
Last season, there were only three goaltenders that were in the top 10 in wins, save percentage and goals against: Martin Brodeur-NJ, Nicklas Backstrom-Min and JS Giguere-Ana.
Brodeur once again had a spectacular year. He has great conditioning and will be near the top again this year, but one has to be concerned with the amount of games he starts.
Backstrom should have another good year. Excellent lateral movement and reflexes.
Giguere was wonderful again last season as many thought he would regress after winning the Cup.
Netminders that finished in the top 20 in all three categories were:
Ilya Bryzgalov-Pho
Henrik Lundqvist-NYR
Roberto Luongo-Van
Christobal Huet- Chi
Tim Thomas-Bos
Chris Osgood-Det
Goaltenders that finished in the top 20 in both goals-against and save percentage were:
Dan Ellis-Nsh
Marc-Andre Fleury-Pit
Carey Price-Mon
Manny Legace-Stl
Ty Conklin-Pit
Pascal Leclaire-Clb
Goaltenders that finished in the top 20 in wins and in the top 20 in either GAA or SP were:
Marty Turco-Dal
Martin Gerber-Ott
Martin Biron-Phi
Tomas Vokoun-Fla
Jose Theodore-Wsh
If you wait until the later rounds, there are still some prime goaltenders that should have a credible year such as Cam Ward-Car; Manny Fernandez-Bos; Ryan Miller-Buf; Mike Smith-TB.
Take advantage of good goaltending on draft day and use the points to augment your offensive points.
So, you've done it-you've selected a team that you feel can go all the way. Avoid making post draft day deals until you have time to examine your team. Go home, look it over, follow your players for a few weeks, then reassess. Good luck!
