Can Jonathan Toews avoid the dreaded sophomore jinx?
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So much in sports is made of the dreaded “Sophomore Jinx”. But does one really exist in the hockey arena? Sure, rookies are all fired up in their inaugural season-it’s human nature to want to impress. But can second-year players expand on their rookie point totals and exceed those points in their sophomore year, or will they automatically falter and thus should be avoided on draft day? Below is a list of the top rookie scorers from two seasons ago along with their sophomore totals.
Player Rookie Total Sophomore Total +/-
Evgeni Malkin 85 106 +21
Paul Stastny 78 71 -7
Anze Kopitar 61 77 +16
Wojtek Wolski 50 46 -4
Dustin Penner 45 47 +2
Jordan Staal 42 28 -14
Travis Zajac 42 34 -8
Matt Carle 42 15 -27
Alexander Radulov 37 58 +21
Ryan Clowe 34 8 -26
Guillaume Latendresse 29 27 -2
Phil Kessel 29 37 +8
Joe Pavelski 28 40 +12
Drew Stafford 27 38 +11
Ian White 26 21 -5
As you can see, out of the 15 sophomore players from last season, seven increased their rookie point totals while eight had a decrease in their rookie point totals (53%). In past seasons, sophomore point totals have decreased in the range of 45% to 65%
These are the last year’s rookies that are headed into their sophomore year this season.
Player Rookie Total
Patrick Kane-Chi 72
Nicklas Backstrom-Wsh 69
Jonathan Toews-Chi 54
Peter Mueller-Pho 54
Sam Gagner-Edm 49
Andrew Cogliano-Edm 45
Brandon Dubinsky-NYR 40
Tobias Enstrom-Atl 38
Martin Hanzal-Pho 35
Tom Gilbert-Edm 33
Eric Johnson-StL 33
Nigel Dawes-NYR 29
David Perron-StL 27
Sergei Kostitsyn-Mtl 27
Milan Lucic-Bos 27
There are 15 sophomores listed above and between 6 and 9 of them will finish with lower points than their rookie season. We already know that Eric Johnson of St. Louis will finish lower as he is injured. Tread cautiously when drafting sophomores.
I will check in on how they are doing as the season gets near the halfway mark.
