Drew Brees had a fantastic overall season for the Saints in 2006, but where did he rank in terms of QG?

This week, before we discuss some pick ups to help you win, let’s take a quick glance at a neglected stat in fantasy, shooting percentage.  One useful way of predicting future success is to take a look at players whose shots on goal, to goals scored ratios are out of whack. By out of whack, I mean they should be better or worse than they are.  For example, Keith Tkachuk has 8 goals on 24 shots.  That’s an extremely proficient shooting percentage of 33%.  I’m not suggesting Tkachuk is not capable of keeping a strong rate up, but over the last 20 seasons, no eligible player has finished the season with a 33% shooting percentage.  In fact the league average of shooting percentage leaders over those 20 seasons was 25.96%.  What’s more interesting, is only 1 player was even close, Sergei Makarov in 1990-91 who led the league with a shooting percentage of 32.26%.  Over the past 10 seasons the league leader average has been somewhat lower at 22.13%.  In case you were interested, Mike Ribeiro led last season with a robust 25.23%.

This was a lot of calculation to demonstrate the obvious, that Keith Tkachuk is an obvious ‘sell high’.  If the league leaders in shooting percentage over the last 10 seasons have not scored goals on 33% of their shots on goal you should not expect an elder statesmen like Tkachuk to miraculously buck the trend this season. 

I bet your thinking ‘I knew Tkachuk was a sell high, genius.  Tell me something I don’t know.’  Well the above analysis is a quick way to find a sell high or buy low player.  There are a million examples right now, but let’s take a look at a high profile player like Alex Ovechkin.  This season he’s got 2 goals with 41 shots on goal for a very low shooting percentage of 4.8%.  Last year he had 65 goals from 446 shots on goal for 14.57%.  It’s obviously quite easy to predict that Ovechkin will score at a better rate than his current 2 goals in 8 games pace. 

You can use the statistical analysis framework I’ve suggested to find other ‘buy low’ candidates.  To save you some time take a look at Patrik Elias, Chris Drury, Rob Blake, Dion Phaneuf and Corey Perry who are all among the league leaders in shots and have just 7 goals between them.  If they continue to shoot on goal, they will score at a better percentage going forward and therefore make for great buy low options right now.  Outside of Phaneuf, the rest of these players are all slightly undervalued and could come at discount in a trade. 

Patrick O’Sullivan – C - Kings

There should be virtually no way O’Sullivan is out there in many leagues given his prospect status and awesome conclusion to last season.  He had 22 goals last season and already has 3 this year.  O’Sullivan’s got 6 overall points in just 7 games thus far.  He’s a player who consistently scored more than a point and half a game in minor league hockey, which means he’s a solid bet to have large success at the NHL level.  If someone is willing to trade O’Sullivan based on his team’s potential for a bad plus minus, or if he’s sitting out there on waivers for the same reason, find a player to dump/trade for him.  I’m expecting 30 goals from O’Sullivan this season.  He’s an outstanding target for keeper leaguers.

Milan Lucic – LW – Bruins

 Lucic has 4 goals and 3 assists so far this season, including a hat trick earlier this week.  Besides the insane hit he imposed in Toronto on the weekend, the real reason you’re interested in Lucic is for the power forward numbers.  He’s a solid penalty minute provider with good hands. Lucic is also playing on the top line in Boston and getting some power play time.  He has 3 power play points on the young season.  Power forwards capable of 25 goals and 100 penalty minutes are a rare commodity.  Grab Lucic and avoid the rush.  At just 20 years old, Lucic makes for a great target in keeper leagues.

Alex Auld – G – Ottawa

Continuing my recommendation of goalies from last week, Auld needs to be added based on the murky situation surrounding the Senators. Martin Gerber is currently nursing a leg injury allowing Auld to sneak in some successful and strong starts. He’s been effective in past seasons and Gerber has never been known for being solid (see his flaky Hurricane playoff career numbers, circa Stanley Cup championship season).  It’s speculation, but Auld makes for a good pick up given that he has performed well lately.  He could at least be in line for a time share when Gerber gets back and that merits a pick up in most leagues.

Loui Eriksson – LW - Stars

One of two Stars forwards I’ll recommend this week.  Eriksson’s found some early success this season netting 4 goals so far and 6 points in his rookie campaign.  His recent strong play has bought him some increased ice time on a strong Dallas forward unit.  He’s currently the first line left wing, centered by assist monster Mike Ribeiro.  At just 23 years old and with a solid opportunity in Dallas, Eriksson may make for a solid season long pick up. Get him for now as he’s netted 3 goals in his past 2 games.

Fabian Brunnstrom – LW - Stars

The other Stars winger of note is on the second scoring line, centered by Brad Richards and sports one of the league’s best power forwards in Brendan Morrow on the left wing. Brunnstrom has been getting solid power play minutes with Dallas’s first unit, which has resulted in 5 goals and 6 overall points. He’s not getting as much ice time as the above- mentioned Eriksson right now, but if he keeps producing with the time he’s given, he will see more as the season progresses.  Brunnstrom was a standout player in the Swedish league who had 79 points in just 49 games 2 seasons ago.

Mike Van Ryn – D – Maple Leafs

The surprising Leafs have garnered a solid power play pick up from their defensive unit.  With the majority of the Leafs blue liners being defensive defenseman, Van Ryn has made a strong showing on the Toronto power play. He’s got 4 overall points with 3 of them coming on the power play.  Van Ryn’s also is sporting a nifty plus 4 rating.  I’m not suggesting you break the bank for him but his numbers are solid.  He’s worth a look if you’re hurting on the blue line. 

Clarke MacArthur – LW – Sabres

MacArthur is a former top prospect, currently centering the second line in Buffalo.  He was a point per game player throughout his minor league hockey career. So far this season, MacArthur has 4 goals, 6 overall points and 4 points on the power play.  He could soon qualify at centre in many leagues giving him extra position flexibility.  Right now, he’s more of a deeper league option.  With a history of getting penalty minutes in the AHL and WHL, and 10 penalty minutes so far this season, I’d suggest picking him as a nice upside player for your bench.  Tim Connolly’s return will eat into some of MacArthur’s ice time but Connolly is far from a model of health.  I expect MacArthur to be a solid pick up for the time being with a possibility for a lot more if Connolly continues to suffer with injuries (which he will).

Before I sign off for this week, make sure you’re paying close attention to your players shooting percentage before dropping them.  Also, be mindful of players on the wire that have low shooting percentages, that historically have not.   They may catch fire soon, and they should be on your roster BEFORE they do.