Denny Hamlin's last win came at New Hampshire - can he do it again?

We are back at the magic mile of New Hampshire International Speedway and it is the beginning of The Chase. There will be twelve drivers who are racing for the Nextel Cup Championship, and even though they are racing with thirty-one other drivers, they are somewhat set apart, as well. Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, Carl Edwards, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr., Matt Kenseth, Kyle Busch, Jeff Burton, Kevin Harvick, and Clint Boyer are the ones who will be racing within the race.

Eight of those drivers have qualified in the top twelve for Sunday’s race, which means they are taking things seriously. Because these twelve are racing for a championship, it will affect how I pick my top five.

If you doubt how important it is to consider the chase in my picks, I have a few quotes from some of the chase drivers this week below.

Denny Hamlin: “You’re going to be wondering at the end, ‘Where did I finish among the chase guys?’”
“You’re probably going to see most of the chase guys finish in the top ten.”
“You’re probably going to expect some courtesy and then get frustrated when you don’t get it.”

Matt Kenseth: “All twelve teams have a legitimate shot at it.”
“There are a few guys that have been running a little bit better and are above the rest of us.”

Kyle Busch: “Your worst day better be twelfth.”

Jeff Gordon did not qualify well, he starts eighteenth, but he has won here three times and finished second back in July. Then there is the fact that, because of the new points system, he went from a huge (317 points) lead in points to being bumped back into second right behind the guy who had been in sixth place. In interviews, he acts very much the gentleman and says the new points system is good for NASCAR and he has no problem following their rules. While there may be some truth to this fact, it has to bother him more than just a little bit. I’m sure he wants that spot back, and he’s never been one to back down when it comes to crunch time.

I have steered away from Denny Hamlin as a choice lately for two reasons. He didn’t win a race until the one time I did not pick him (If he runs poorly this week, I’ll never pick him again) and he has not been running very well. Speaking of the last time he won a race, it was here at New Hampshire.

Ten more races to run your best, and you better be on top of your game for each one of them. I like the quote from this pick’s brother, Kyle: “Your worst day better be twelfth.”
Kurt Busch has been impressive lately and I don’t think he will slip. He may have a worst finish of twelfth, but that should be it as long as he doesn’t run into bad luck.

Tony Stewart is another driver who knows when to get serious and buckle down. I do, however, wonder how he will balance between aggressive and smart, but he has been getting better and better at that over the years.

My next pick wrecked his primary car in practice and qualified eleventh in his backup car… not too shabby. I had hoped to get some video of Carl Edwards doing his back flip when I was at Richmond, but a blown engine took away that opportunity. At the time his engine blew, he was having a ‘fun time’ and I think he will continue to do so despite the pressure of the chase.

For my dark horse, I am going to go deep once again, since it turned out so well last week. Dave Blaney is a driver I am always watching and hoping he runs well. He’s a good guy and has not had a bad year. He qualified tenth, ran fourteenth fastest in practice and won the pole here back in July.

Starting Grid

Questions and comments may be sent to jenniferpatterson@sportsgrumblings.com