Tony Stewart needs a big win this week to get back in the thick of the Chase - can he?

Lowe’s Motor Speedway, located just outside Charlotte, North Carolina, is considered NASCAR’s hometown track and is where we are headed for this weekend’s race. This one-and-a-half mile race will be seen under the lights on Saturday night. It is not as long as the race we saw here in May of this year, being 100 miles shorter than the six hundred miles they ran then.

The way this track is set up with the twenty-four degree banking in the turns means you will see a lot of speed at this track, but not much braking. Drivers will let off of the gas instead of braking and then be able to take off out of the corners. The drivers are going to need their cars to handle well here if they want to be competitive, but even so, coming off of turn four, it’s tight and drivers get close to the wall, so look for some wiggling there.

There will be a lot of side-by-side racing thanks to the different lines drivers will be able to run. Look to see a lot of the drivers tying high and low grooves in order to see where their car will run fastest. Aerodynamics are important here and drivers will be able to get each other loose in order to pass each other, which can always leads to some interesting interactions on and off of the track.

Everyone will be picking Jimmie Johnson to win this race, and with good reason. He has five wins here and two second place finishes in the last nine starts at Lowe’s, so he is a pretty sure bet this Sunday. I would actually rather pick his teammate Jeff Gordon, but the twenty-four car has had a DNF in the last five races here so it’s hard to think he could do it this time.  However, I have a feeling he is on a roll, so I’m choosing Jeff over Jimmie this week.

Tony Stewart was close to a win in May, but gas mileage played against him. He is one-hundred and fifty-four points behind the leader and needs a strong showing to close that gap and make a run for his third championship.

It is not just for personal reasons that I am going to pick Mark Martin this week. He loves this track and has two wins here. We’re back in the old car this week, not the COT, or else I would have left him out of my picks. After qualifying twelfth, he put in some fast laps in Happy Hour practice, so I am holding out hope that he gets some good luck thrown his way.

Matt Kenseth has one win here and does not have a very good record at this track, but he qualified seventh and in practice was the fastest. He’s one driver you never want count out because he likes to come out of nowhere and surprise you.

Jamie McMurray was running well earlier this year and then seemed to hit a rough spot. I usually favor him in the COT races, but I can’t ignore his fast practice times and his starting position of sixth. His win here in 2002 doesn’t hurt his chances, either. 

I am very tempted to pick Ryan Newman as my dark horse pick this week, but despite his seven poles here at Lowe’s, he has never won. He can qualify well but never deliver when the checkered flag drops. Bobby Labonte has slowly been pulling Petty Enterprises back up in the standings and is set to continue to do so. He starts third, and although he was not running fast in practice, he has five hundred miles to figure out his car, so I’m picking him as my dark horse this week.

Starting Grid

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